Friday, June 18, 2010

Eventually, when the funds of the banking system will tense?

Chairman Yu said that the current account just a balance thing, this matter is very important. This thing is not a Chinese exchange rate issue, we can all hold different views, many people believe that China's exchange rate issue is a problem, you let him up the exchange rate issue solved, I think the problem is not necessarily the greatest strength is U.S. monetary policy. China is the land prices began to rise significantly when the dollar began to fall, beginning in 2002, China's land prices start to rise, many developers are not remember the price of land will fall. I recently saw a developer, it is Niua, he told me that China has never been fitted to the king lived, if we all think this is the case, low-cost must be soaring, anyway, no matter how high the price I bought will not captive, the government will one day push land prices higher. Because of this thinking, so much more easily swept up that way inclined, in the past before the fact, in 2002 China has done much of the land price adjustment, in 92 years, 93 years time, the overall land prices very high in Shanghai 97 years time house prices to their highest point, was down by 60%.

This period most of us no impression, because the real estate market was not large, the main reason is because the U.S. monetary policy changes and to changes in U.S. dollars to the. As long as the United States put a lot of money, this money either through exports in the form of, or through the form of hot money will flow to a depression in the area you think the Chinese think is depression, so that you the exchange rate going up, so you must be a depression In fact, this idea is wrong, in fact, Southeast Asia a decade ago, when Southeast Asia is also a lot of money to flow to the same statement that followed the U.S. in Southeast Asia are linked to exchange rates, the dollar is not weak currencies in Southeast Asia rose, so the money is to be up, and so much money to run into, the money ran towards where? Went to real estate, go after the cost increase, so the crisis came after the devaluation it is not appreciated. China is in many ways, very similar with the South-East Asia ten years ago, in fact, we think that China is still undervalued, I think not, I talk with China's export enterprises, the competitiveness they feel it is too big now . Many business owners are ready to light the enterprise removed, including I heard should be removed, footwear, furniture, clothing, almost half of China's exports, moved to Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, in particular, many people in Bangladesh China is very optimistic, although now that the infrastructure in Bangladesh is not good, costs are higher, but in the long run it from a large population, young people very much, so labor costs will remain low for many years. Other transport costs, can be reduced through development, so in the long run we are favored.

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