Friday, June 18, 2010

How this issue eventually resolved?

Therefore, issues of China's exports is not a short-term, we see the global economy to adjust, many exporters have decided to move up, this will not change China's policy for the time being, for they have more long-term view. Moreover, China's real estate with the most expensive place internationally about now, and China's low wages can not say, now that China's labor market is still possible that some mainland looking for workers on construction sites, 100 a day, indicating that the market is still relatively good. Therefore, from the competitiveness of China's top, I think not necessarily say that our exchange rate to rise a lot, and my money so much, mainly because the United States put too much money.

Or changed for the better the economy, or inflation becomes higher, and inflation becomes higher the force the bank money. Many years ago I was thinking, how this big bubble will finally end? In 2006 when I was thinking that when this matter is the end of the last stagflation, the economic downturn because of the central bank that would put the money, but today the central bank will put the money that the economy is good, but they are wrong, our economy The problem is that the micro issues, they want to solve with a macro-micro policy issues, many poor in the U.S. employment structure. Americans have engaged in a bubble because of globalization, the relocation of their factories, he come up with a bubble to a lot of people to employment, employment in real estate, consumer-related retail, finance in these areas are related with the bubble, so the bubble storm after these people have no job, this job will not come back tomorrow, so he was looking for new jobs, new jobs need time, not that much interest can be created, so to adopt new Entrepreneurs create new jobs, this is a very long time. But not so that the central bank, so it will print a lot of money, it will lead to inflation. The leading indicator of inflation is oil, it is now because inflation expectations are buying gold. The most important thing is the oil, my personal opinion would be fired oil high, pushed up overall inflation will cause the future, inflation together a bit not brake this time, the central bank must raise interest rates, and this process will be about 2 years, I guess 2012 was a turning point. This year China's capital market which we or the Government hand, the government while the economic downturn that has put some money toward the stock market, real estate, so that everyone happy happy, while they receive some money, tossing back and forth several times, until the last world to inflation, the central bank money, and that bubble would be finished.

No comments:

Post a Comment